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探索COVID-19对气候变化下的冲突风险的全球影响

Xiaolan Xie^1,2, Mengmeng Hao^1,2, Fangyu Ding^1,2

¹Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.

|June 19, 2023

概括

COVID-19大流行严重影响全球冲突风险,对不同类型的冲突产生不同的影响. 气候变化也在这些复杂的动态中发挥作用,影响示威和暴力冲突.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
政治科学政治科学是指政治学.
公共卫生公共卫生

背景情况:

随着COVID-19的流行,全球面临新的挑战,对社会稳定产生潜在的连续影响.
了解流行病,气候变化和冲突之间的相互作用对于全球安全至关重要.
现有的研究还没有充分探讨这些全球压力因素之间的多方面的关系.

研究的目的:

调查COVID-19大流行对各种类型的全球冲突的影响.
在气候变化的更广泛背景下分析这些影响.
为与预防冲突有关的政策制定提供经验证据.

主要方法:

利用了涵盖武装冲突,COVID-19传播和2020-2021年气候变量的综合数据集.
采用结构方程建模来绘制气候,COVID-19和冲突风险之间的关系.
应用增强回归树来模拟不同影响因素下的冲突风险.

主要成果:

COVID-19 传播风险与温度上升具有反向关系.
大流行病对冲突风险产生了重大全球影响,区域差异很大.
一个月后的分析显示,COVID-19与示威 (抗议,骚乱) 有正相关,但与非国家和暴力冲突有负相关.

结论:

COVID-19 流行病对全球冲突风险产生了复杂而多样化的影响,特别是在与气候变化相互作用时.
调查结果强调,在面对全球卫生危机和环境变化时,需要采取细微的冲突缓解方法.
该研究提供了一个理论框架和政策见解,用于管理与流行病相关的冲突风险.

关键词:

增强的回归树可以提高回归树.在 COVID-19 疫情中,因果关系是因果关系.发生冲突的风险.结构方程模型的结构方程模型.

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