2002-2020年柬埔寨登革热:病例,特征和国家监测的捕获
Christina Yek1, Yimei Li2, Andrea R Pacheco3
1Critical Care Medicine Department, National Institutes of Health Clinical Center, Bethesda, MD, USA.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
|June 19, 2023
概括
柬埔寨的登革热发病率正在上升,病例影响的是年长的儿童,国家监测低估了真实数字. 干预措施必须解决这种低估和人口变化的问题,以有效控制.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
背景情况:
- 登革热在柬埔寨仍然是一个重大的公共卫生问题.
- 了解登革热的时间趋势和人口变化对于有效的控制策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析柬埔寨19年的国家登革热监测数据 (2002-2020年).
- 描述登革热病例特征和发病率的趋势.
- 评估与队列数据相比,国家监测对登革热病例的低估.
主要方法:
- 2002-2020年国家登革热监测数据的分析.
- 用于评估发病率和特征趋势的通用添加模型.
- 将国家监测数据与儿科队列研究 (2018-2020年) 进行比较,以量化低估.
主要成果:
- 柬埔寨的登革热病例发生率在2002年至2020年间增加了2.1倍.
- 登革热病例的平均年龄从5.8岁上升到9.1岁.
- 病例死亡率显著下降,从1.77%降至0.10%.
- 国家监测低估了临床明显登革热的5.0倍和整体登革热的33.6倍.
结论:
- 柬埔寨的登革热发病率正在增加,明显的转向的是老年儿科人口.
- 国家监测严重低估了登革热病例数.
- 未来的登革热控制工作必须将疾病低估和人口变化纳入干预计划和资源分配.
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