封锁的溢出影响
1HKIMR, Hong Kong SAR, China.
概括
COVID-19封锁通过跨境溢出影响显著影响经济. 外国封锁冲击对国内经济活动产生了不利影响,对股价和出口的影响超过了国内影响.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 国际贸易 国际贸易 国际贸易
- 流行病学研究 流行病学研究
背景情况:
- 由于COVID-19大流行,需要进行广泛的封锁,扰乱了全球经济活动.
- 了解这些制措施的跨境经济后果至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 实证地估计国家之间的封锁溢出效应的规模.
- 分析外国封锁冲击对国内经济指标的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用面板局部预测与每日经济活动指标.
- 包括库存回报,有效汇率,二氧化排放,流动性和海上集装箱贸易.
- 使用贸易,外国直接投资和价值链连接权重构建的外国冲击.
主要成果:
- 来自主要贸易伙伴的封锁冲击严重损害了国内经济活动.
- 对股价和出口的溢出影响有时比国内封锁的影响更大.
- 封锁的溢出影响在疫情初期最为明显.
结论:
- 严重依赖出口的国家特别容易受到外部封锁措施的影响.
- 国家封锁的跨境经济影响需要在政策制定中仔细考虑.
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