关于复制失败率的准确性
1Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University.
Multivariate behavioral research
|June 20, 2023
概括
复制危机研究报告失败率,但统计不确定性意味着这些率可能是有偏见的和可变的. 高或低的故障率可能仅仅是由于偶然而发生.
科学领域:
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
- 超级科学是一个超级科学.
- 科学方法科学方法学
背景情况:
- 复制危机是科学研究中的一个重大问题.
- 复制研究是评估研究可重复性的重要方法.
- 报告的复制失败率是讨论危机的关键统计数据.
研究的目的:
- 检查统计不确定性对报告的复制失败率的影响.
- 评估从复制程序中获得的故障率的准确性和可变性.
- 了解机会如何影响观察到的复制结果.
主要方法:
- 复制数据的统计分析.
- 模拟个人复制决策中不确定性的影响.
- 评估聚合故障率的偏差和变化.
主要成果:
- 报告的复制失败率可能会存在重大偏差.
- 由于统计不确定性,故障率具有很高的变化.
- 仅仅是偶然就能产生非常高或非常低的观察到的故障率.
结论:
- 报告的复制失败率的准确性是可疑的.
- 统计不确定性需要谨慎地解释复制危机统计数据.
- 对于可靠的可复制性评估,需要进一步考虑方法.
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