基于可可的农林系统对西非气候变化的脆弱性
Antonio Jesús Ariza-Salamanca1, Rafael M Navarro-Cerrillo2, José L Quero-Pérez2
1Department of Forest Engineering, Laboratory of Dendrochronology, Silviculture and Global Change, DendrodatLab-ERSAF, University of Cordoba, Campus de Rabanales, Crta. IV, Km. 396, 14071, Córdoba, Spain. o32arsaa@uco.es.
Scientific reports
|June 20, 2023
概括
气候变化可能会减少西非树树适合的息地,影响基于可可的农业林业系统 (C-AFS). 通过改变树树的组成来适应C-AFS对于未来的气候弹性至关重要.
科学领域:
- 农业林业是农业林业的一部分.
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 西非的可可种植面临着气候驱动的息地不适.
- 气候变化对可可基农林系统 (C-AFS) 中阴影树种的影响尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 为西非的可可和37种阴影树种建模当前和未来的息地适合性.
- 评估气候和土地利用变化对C-AFS的影响.
- 为调整C-AFS适应未来气候条件的战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 用一种共识方法来模拟物种分布.
- 纳入适合息地评估的气候和土壤变量.
- 到2040年和2060年,可可和37种树树种类的预测变化.
主要成果:
- 预计到2060年可适用可可面积将增加6%,但考虑到可用的土地使用,将减少14.5%.
- 预计模拟的树树种类的地理范围将减少50% (到2040年) 和60% (到2060年).
- 确定了影子树物种丰富度热点和未来适合可可地区之间的潜在不匹配.
结论:
- 气候变化对西非C-AFS的树树的多样性构成重大风险.
- 通过调整阴影树组成来改变C-AFS对于气候适应至关重要.
- 树树的战略选择对于可可生产的可持续性至关重要.
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