气候变化对一个新热带山脉的物种的威胁
Samuel C Gomides1, João Carlos Pires-Oliveira2, Talita M Machado3
1, Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará, Rodovia PA-439, nº 257, Santíssimo, 68270-000 Oriximiná, PA, Brazil.
Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias
|June 21, 2023
概括
气候变化威胁着高海拔地区的生物多样性. 这项研究模拟了巴西两种物种未来的息地适应性.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护科学 保护科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球生物多样性构成重大威胁,特别影响高海拔地区的生态系统.
- 生物多样性保护战略往往缺乏长期气候变化减缓计划.
- 热带山区是重要的生物多样性热点和潜在的气候避难所.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变化对巴西热带山区塞拉多埃斯宾哈索物种的影响.
- 为两种具有明显特征的物种建模当前和未来的环境适应性.
- 为面临气候变化的高海拔特有物种制定保护政策.
主要方法:
- 使用生物气候,地形和地形变量进行物种分布建模.
- 在乐观的 (RCP 4.5) 和悲观的 (RCP 8.5) 气候场景下,对2070年息地适宜性的预测.
- 选择了两个物种,Tropidurus montanus和Rhachisaurus brachylepis,具有不同的温度调节和分布模式.
主要成果:
- 两种气候场景都预测,适合研究物种的环境区域将减少.
- 据预测,分布有限的物种 (Rhachisaurus brachylepis) 将受到不成比例的影响.
- 目前的保护区可能提供气候稳定性,但未来的适宜性预计将下降,特别是在RCP 8.5情景下.
结论:
- 气候变化可能会减少塞拉多·埃斯宾哈索地区特有的息地可用性.
- 保护规划必须考虑未来的气候影响,特别是对于范围有限的物种.
- 在预测的气候变化情景下,塞拉多埃斯宾哈索作为避难所的作用可能会减少.
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