直接减排与跨部门额外排放之间的权衡:来自中国运输部门电气化转型的证据
Zhaohua Wang1,2,3,4, Hongzhi Zhang1,2,5, Bo Wang1,2,4
1School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China.
Environmental science & technology
|June 21, 2023
概括
电气化中国的运输部门提供了显著的二氧化碳 (CO2) 减少,但只有在发电也脱碳. 否则,能源部门的排放量增加可能会抵消运输的好处.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
背景情况:
- 电气化运输部门是减少二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放和实现"巴黎协定"目标的关键战略.
- 交通电气化的环境效益往往在没有充分考虑能源供应部门的相关排放的情况下进行评估.
研究的目的:
- 制定一个框架来评估中国交通电气化政策对能源和环境的影响.
- 分析减少运输排放和增加能源供应部门排放之间的权衡.
主要方法:
- 分析中国运输部门历史二氧化碳排放驱动因素.
- 实地调查收集各种车辆的与能源相关的参数.
- 考虑到国家异质性的电气化政策对能源环境影响的评估.
主要成果:
- 中国的整体运输电气化可以在2025-2075年间大幅减少二氧化碳 (占全球年度排放量的19.8-42%).
- 然而,考虑到能源供应排放,预计净增加2.2-16.1 GtCO2.
- 预计电力需求将增加5.1至6.7倍,相关的二氧化碳排放可能超过运输排放减少.
结论:
- 仅仅是交通运输的电气化不足以强有力的减缓气候变化.
- 有效的减缓需要在运输和能源供应领域的协同脱碳努力.
- 通过电气化实现显著的负净排放取决于在能源生产中达到严格的脱碳目标,例如在1.5°C或2°C的场景中.
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