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弗吉尼亚州的气候和人类死亡率,2005-2020年
Robert E Davis1, Patrick C Roney1, Melanie M Pane1
1Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, USA.
The Science of the total environment
|June 21, 2023
概括
弗吉尼亚州的寒冷天气比热气带来更大的死亡风险,在暴露后3-10天发生了大量与寒冷有关的死亡. 特定区域的气候死亡率模型揭示了各种风险,尽管一般模型显示了类似的趋势.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 生物气象学生物气象学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 气候变化需要了解其对公共健康的影响.
- 之前的研究表明,气候与死亡率的关系在地理上有所不同.
- 弗吉尼亚州多样化的气候区域需要对这些影响进行本地化分析.
研究的目的:
- 为了检查弗吉尼亚州12个不同的气候地区的气候死亡率关系.
- 模拟与温度,湿度和极端天气事件相关的每日死亡率.
- 为了更广泛的适用性,将特定区域的模型与一般共识模型进行比较.
主要方法:
- 利用了弗吉尼亚州居民死亡的广泛数据库 (2005-2020年).
- 使用气象站数据来得出生物气象指数.
- 应用了通用添加模型 (GAM) 和分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM) 来分析21天滞后期间的关系.
主要成果:
- 在弗吉尼亚州的大部分地区,与寒冷相关的死亡风险通常高于与热量相关的风险 (RR 1.10对1.03).
- 寒冷死亡风险在3-10天的滞后期最明显,而热死亡发生在较短的滞后期 (0-2天).
- 观察到死亡风险的区域差异很大,U形,J形和反向线性关系很明显.
结论:
- 寒冷的温度比弗吉尼亚州的高温带来更大的死亡威胁.
- 特定区域的模型是有价值的,但共识模型为区域间比较提供了可比的见解.
- 调查结果强调,需要根据区域气候脆弱性量身定制的公共卫生干预措施.
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