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一个集成的多维弹性指数,城市地区容易发生洪水:开发和验证
Estefanía Aroca-Jiménez1, José María Bodoque1, Juan Antonio García2
1Department of Mining and Geological Engineering, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Avda. Carlos III, Toledo 45071, Spain.
The Science of the total environment
|June 21, 2023
概括
制定有效的突发洪水战略需要评估抗灾能力. 本研究引入了综合多维弹性指数 (IMRI),以更好地捕捉城市在社会,经济,环境,物理,机构和文化方面的弹性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 灾害风险管理 灾害风险管理
背景情况:
- 减少洪水风险对于全球变化中的可持续发展至关重要.
- 目前基于指数的弹性评估往往忽视了多维方面 (社会,经济,环境,物理,机构,文化).
- 由于数据限制和事件可变性,在城市突然洪水地区对区域弹性指数的外部验证是有限的.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个区域综合多维弹性指数 (IMRI) 的城市洪水易发地区.
- 通过结合多个维度来解决现有的弹性评估方法的局限性.
- 为了解和增强城市对突发洪水的抵御能力提供一个强大的工具.
主要方法:
- 综合多维弹性指数 (IMRI) 的开发.
- 使用蒙特卡洛方法进行内部验证,包括不确定性和敏感性分析.
- 使用隐性类集群分析 (LCCA) 描述区域弹性模式.
主要成果:
- IMRI有效地捕捉了城市弹性多维性质.
- 最具弹性地区表现出高度的社会和文化弹性;最不具弹性地区需要增强社会和机构的弹性.
- 验证证实了IMRI的稳定性,偏差低,弹性类别稳定的概率高.
- LCCA确定了城市恢复力的五个不同的区域空间模式.
结论:
- 开发的IMRI提供了一种全面的方法来评估城市对突发洪水的抵抗力.
- 调查结果突出了需要在不同城市地区加强的具体方面.
- 该方法框架支持针对不同城市环境的有针对性的弹性建设战略.
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