最糟糕的情况:建模2型失控脊髓灰质炎传播
Dominika A Kalkowska1, Eric Wiesen2, Steven G F Wassilak2
1Kid Risk, Inc., Orlando, Florida, USA.
概括
二型脊髓灰质炎病毒仍然是一个全球威胁,自2016年以来报告了3000多起病例. 目前的策略,包括新型口服脊髓灰质炎病毒疫苗 (nOPV2),显示2型脊髓灰质炎病毒的近期根除概率没有.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 病毒学 病毒学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 全球脊髓灰质炎根除倡议 (GPEI) 在2016年停止了大多数2型口服脊髓灰质炎疫苗 (OPV2) 的使用.
- 从那时起,在39个国家报告了超过3000例由2型疫苗衍生的脊髓灰质炎病例.
- 2型脊髓灰质炎病毒的传播仍在持续,造成了将其进口到高传播率地区的风险.
研究的目的:
- 为了建模2型脊髓灰质炎病毒传播的未来轨迹.
- 通过当前和新型干预措施评估根除2型脊髓灰质炎病毒的可能性.
- 确定避免脊髓灰质炎扩散的灾难性情景的策略.
主要方法:
- 基于先前的研究,利用了脊髓灰质炎终局模型.
- 评估当前国家和GPEI疫情应对绩效.
- 在紧急情况下评估了新型2型口服脊髓灰质炎疫苗 (nOPV2) 的影响.
主要成果:
- 目前的策略,即使是nOPV2,也显示不太可能在短期内根除2型脊髓灰质炎病毒.
- 最坏的情况预测麻性脊髓灰质炎病例的快速扩张.
- 持续传播可能会导致严重后果事件,并危及消除脊髓灰质炎的目标.
结论:
- 避免灾难性的脊髓灰质炎情景需要制定战略,以显著提高人口对2型脊髓灰质炎病毒的免疫力.
- 目前的2型脊髓灰质炎病毒管理方法不足以根除.
- 紧急开发新的策略对于实现永久结束脊髓灰质炎至关重要.
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