树木生长弹性的下降介于美国西山地区随后的森林死亡率
Antoine Cabon1,2, R Justin DeRose3, John D Shaw4
1Wilkes Center for Climate Science and Policy, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA.
Global change biology
|June 22, 2023
概括
树木生长弹性指标显示,预测森林灭绝的可能性中等. 树木的弹性下降和低增长与死亡率增加有关,但可能不会显著改善大规模气候变化影响预测.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在增加森林死亡,威胁全球森林和碳捕获.
- 预测森林死亡率仍然具有挑战性,尽管提出了树木生长弹性指标作为易感性的代理指标.
研究的目的:
- 测试树木生长的抗旱能力是否能够解释和改善观察到的标准水平死亡率的预测.
- 评估弹性指标在理解森林灭绝动态方面的作用.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自美国西山地区约3000个永久森林库存地块的广泛树环数据集.
- 分析了过去二十年来经历严重干旱和灭绝的13种主要树木物种的数据.
- 在20世纪后期研究了生长变化,自身相关性,抗干旱性和弹性方面的变化.
主要成果:
- 观察到几种物种的增长变异性和时间自相关性增加,以及干旱抵抗力和弹性下降.
- 发现弹性下降,树木生长率低,跨物种和物种内部死亡率模式之间存在强烈联系.
- 弹性指标对气候和站立结构具有类似的解释能力,但它们的效应部分是由这些变量解释的.
结论:
- 树木生长弹性通过整合压力因素的影响,为森林死亡提供了宝贵的生理洞察力.
- 弹性指标可能具有适度的潜力,可以改善气候变化下的大规模森林死亡预测,但不是唯一的预测因素.
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