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亚马逊保护区的气候风险是由气候速度驱动的,直到2050年
Calil Torres-Amaral1,2, Luciano Jorge Serejo Dos Anjos1,3, Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira4
1Postgraduate Program in Environmental Science-PPGCA, Institute of Geosciences, Meteorology Faculty, Federal University of Pará-UFPA, Belém, Pará, Brazil.
PloS one
|June 22, 2023
概括
气候变化威胁着亚马逊,可能会改变物种分布,并挑战保护区 (PA). 这项研究表明,PAs提供了一些保护,但需要新的战略来适应快速的气候变化和新的气候条件. 原住民土地 (ILs) 面临更高的气候速度.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护科学 保护科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在改变全球物种分布.
- 亚马逊地区面临着气候条件变化的重大风险,包括新的气候.
- 保护区 (PA) 对生物多样性保护至关重要,但可能会受到气候驱动范围变化的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 评估亚马逊保护区 (PA) 网络面临的气候风险.
- 评估PAs在气候变化下维持当前气候条件的有效性.
- 研究亚马逊地区的气候速度和无类比气候的出现.
主要方法:
- 使用未来和过去的气候类比 (前进和后退方向) 分析气候速度.
- 使用了当前 (1970-2000) 和未来 (2041-2060) 的气候数据 (温度,降水) 在10公里分辨率.
- 在PA,土著土地 (IL) 和未受保护地区 (UA) 中比较气候速度.
主要成果:
- 在亚马逊生物群体中,逆向气候速度预计大于前进速度.
- 与UA相比,PA网络不太容易受到向后速度冲击的影响,但更容易受到向前速度冲击的影响.
- 显著的非相似气候区域,特别是亚马逊中部地区,表明未来的物种不适合条件.
- 原住民土地 (ILs) 呈现的气候速度高于PAs,表明更大的暴露.
结论:
- 保护区是重要的保护工具,但并非免受气候变化的影响.
- 当前的PA空间安排可能不是最优的,以尽量减少气候再分配的影响.
- 迫切需要针对特定地区的适应性管理策略,以应对亚马逊地区的气候变化挑战.
- 预计的气候速度需要比目前观察到的物种迁徙率要高得多.
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