预测模型用于预测第三级单位内镜手术的需求:一个潜在的验证
Maria Manuela Estevinho1, Rolando Pinho2, Ricardo Veloso3
1Gastroenterology, Centro Hospitalar Vila Nova de Gaia/Espinho, Portugal.
Revista espanola de enfermedades digestivas
|June 23, 2023
概括
准确的内镜需求预测对于资源规划至关重要. 这项研究使用历史数据和指数平滑开发了预测模型,解决了当前内镜软件的差距.
科学领域:
- 胃肠病学和卫生服务研究研究
背景情况:
- 内镜手术的利用率呈指数级增长.
- 准确的需求预测对于内镜装置容量规划和资源配置至关重要.
- 目前的内镜软件缺乏集成的预测建模功能.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证用于预测内镜需求的预测模型.
- 解决目前内镜软件中缺少预测模型的局限性.
- 改善内镜单位的资源配置和能力规划.
主要方法:
- 从2015-2021年 (83个月) 的第三级单位利用了历史内镜需求数据.
- 开发了使用指数级光滑技术的预测模型.
- 对趋势和季节性因素进行调整的模型.
主要成果:
- 成功开发了用于内镜需求预测的预测模型.
- 证明了对趋势和季节性应用指数级平滑的可行性.
- 模型是从涵盖83个月的大量数据集中得出的.
结论:
- 开发的预测模型可以帮助对内镜装置进行有效的容量规划.
- 预测模型的整合可以提高资源分配效率.
- 这种方法解决了对内镜服务数据驱动决策的关键需求.
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