老龄化的代价:欧洲的经济增长前景
Thaveesha Jayawardhana1, Ruwan Jayathilaka2, Thamasha Nimnadi1
1SLIIT Business School, Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology, Malabe, Sri Lanka.
PloS one
|June 23, 2023
概括
经济增长对一些欧洲国家的老年人口产生影响,而人口老龄化对其他国家的经济产生影响. 这项研究使用了格兰杰因果关系和波形连贯性来分析60年来15个国家的这种关系.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 欧洲研究是欧洲研究.
背景情况:
- 人口老龄化是欧洲的一个显著的人口趋势.
- 了解人口老龄化的经济影响对于政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查15个欧洲国家的经济增长和老年人口之间的因果关系.
- 为了分析60多年来这种关系的时间动态.
主要方法:
- 利用来自世界银行 (1961-2021) 的时间序列数据.
- 使用格兰杰因果关系测试来评估方向影响.
- 应用波束连贯性分析来探索时间变化的关系.
主要成果:
- 在卢森堡,奥地利,丹麦,西班牙和瑞典观察到从经济到老年人口的单向格兰杰因果关系.
- 在希腊和英国发现的反向因果关系 (老年人口与经济关系).
- 在比利时,芬兰,法国,意大利,荷兰,挪威,葡萄牙和土耳其没有发现显著的格兰杰因果关系.
- 波形分析显示,老年人口对欧洲经济增长的负面影响在20世纪60年代,反之在20世纪80年代.
结论:
- 经济和人口关系是具体的国家和动态.
- 政策干预应考虑经济与老年人口联系的方向性和时间性质.
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