西地中海森林的高气候脆弱性
N Hidalgo-Triana1, Andros Solakis1, Federico Casimiro-Soriguer1
1Department of Botany and Plant Physiology (Botany Area), Faculty of Science, University of Málaga, Málaga 29010, Spain.
The Science of the total environment
|June 23, 2023
概括
气候变化对安达卢西亚的森林构成重大威胁. 高海拔和依赖湿度的森林是最脆弱的,而热友物种对不断变化的气候条件具有更强的抵御力.
科学领域:
- 生态与保护生物学 生态与保护生物学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
- 林业和生态系统管理
背景情况:
- 安达卢西亚的森林是地中海生物多样性热点的一部分,面临着严重的气候变化影响.
- 欧盟指令92/43/EEC确定了需要保护的关键森林息地 (社区利益息地 - HCI).
- 评估这些森林的脆弱性对于有效的生物多样性保护战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估12个安达卢西亚森林类型对预计气候变化的脆弱性.
- 为了确定特定的森林类型和物种最容易受到气候引起的压力的风险.
- 为自然资源管理者提供数据驱动的见解,以制定适应策略.
主要方法:
- 使用两个全球气候模型 (MRI-CGCM3,MIROC-ESM) 和两个排放场景 (RCP4.5,RCP8.5) 分析了气候暴露.
- 评估的脆弱性,考虑到气候暴露,敏感性和占主导地位的树种的适应能力.
- 在本世纪中叶和末期的时间段内,计算出每个森林类型的整体脆弱性得分.
主要成果:
- 高海拔和依赖湿度的森林表现出更高的脆弱性;热友森林显示出更大的弹性.
- 根据RCP8.5场景的MIROC-ESM模型,预测到本世纪末气候影响最严重.
- 安达卢西亚树和科里卢斯湿林被确定为最脆弱的,而地中海松树和Olea/Ceratonia森林是最不脆弱的.
结论:
- 气候变化的影响将在本世纪中叶被感知到,大多数HCI森林类型都经历了压力.
- 预计到2100年,安达卢西亚森林将面临显著的气候影响 (32%-98%).
- 该研究强调了西班牙南部需要紧急保护和适应规划的关键森林类型.
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