多目标优化以评估登革热控制成本,使用气候依赖的流行病学模型
Amália Soares Vieira de Vasconcelos1, Josenildo Silva de Lima2, Rodrigo Tomás Nogueira Cardoso3
1Postgraduate Program in Mathematical and Computational Modeling (PPGMMC), Federal Center for Technological Education-CEFET-MG, Av. Amazonas, 7675, Nova Gameleira, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, 30510-000, Brazil. amaliasv@hotmail.com.
Scientific reports
|June 24, 2023
概括
实施对Aedes aegypti蚊子的载体控制措施以预防登革热比治疗感染更具成本效益. 这项研究模拟环境因素,以优化控制策略和降低公共卫生成本.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 像登革热一样的 arboviruses 构成了全球重大公共卫生挑战,每年造成数百万例感染.
- 登革热缺乏特定的治疗方法和广泛可用的疫苗,使得病媒控制成为首要预防策略.
- 埃及蚊子 (Aedes aegypti) 是登革热传播的主要载体.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个温度,降水和湿度依赖的登革热流行病学模型.
- 优化载体控制策略,尽量减少杀虫剂的使用和社会治疗成本.
- 为了比较载体控制干预措施的经济影响与治疗登革热感染的成本.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种包含症状和无症状登革热感染的流行病学模型.
- 用计算机模拟来分析环境变量对登革热传播的影响.
- 应用了一个多目标优化模型,整合了幼虫杀虫剂,成年杀虫剂和超低体积喷策略.
- 该模型配备了来自巴西城市的真实世界登革热感染数据.
主要成果:
- 检测结果显示,载体控制措施,包括幼虫杀虫和成年杀虫,比医院治疗成本更具成本效益.
- 优化的载体控制策略显示,与反应性处理相比,总体支出减少.
- 该研究量化了病媒控制投资和疾病管理成本之间的经济权衡.
结论:
- 综合载体控制策略在经济上有利于管理登革热疫情.
- 环境因素显著影响登革热的传播,需要采取适应性控制措施.
- 投资于主动的载体控制可以减少登革热对公共卫生系统的长期经济负担.
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