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预测温度相关的死亡风险在一个老龄化社会的气候变化下的预测
A Sharma1, Y-K Lin2, C-C Chen3
1Department of Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, 200 Chung-Pei Road, Zhongli 320, Taiwan; Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, 200 Chung-Pei Road, Zhongli 320, Taiwan.
Public health
|June 25, 2023
概括
未来的气候变化将增加台湾老年人口中与热量相关的死亡人数,将脆弱性从寒冷转移到热量. 预测显示,由于高温导致的死亡率大幅增加,需要进行公共卫生干预.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 老年学是一门学科.
背景情况:
- 台湾的人口正在老龄化,预计老年人比例将增加.
- 该地区经历了炎热和潮湿的气候,使其容易受到温度相关的健康风险.
研究的目的:
- 预测台湾老年人 (>65岁) 未来与温度相关的死亡风险.
- 在各种气候情景下估计可归因于温度变化的额外死亡.
主要方法:
- 使用分布式滞后非线性模型和随机效应元分析进行温度死亡风险评估.
- 在未来温度预测中使用代表性度路径 (RCP 2.6,6.0,8.5) 的统计缩小.
- 考虑到老年人口比例的增加,2030年至2039年,2060年至2069年和2090年至2099年的预计死亡率.
主要成果:
- 基线分析 (2005-2018) 显示,对寒冷的影响的脆弱性高于热量影响.
- 未来的预测表明,与寒冷相关的死亡率下降,与热量相关的死亡率显著上升.
- 根据RCP8.5,到2090-2099年,热量可能每年在老年人中造成约170,360例额外的全因死亡.
结论:
- 调查结果预测了台湾老龄化,气候易受影响的人口未来与温度相关的死亡趋势.
- 结果可以为应对气候变化和老龄化社会健康风险的公共卫生政策提供信息.
- 强调需要采取适应策略,以减轻老年人与高温有关的死亡率.
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