在流行病时期的政策选择和合规行为
Giorgio Calcagnini1, Slađana Pavlinović Mršić2, Laura Policardo3
1Department of Economics, Society and Politics, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Urbino, Italy.
概括
这项研究使用游戏理论来模拟COVID-19大流行期间的政治家和公民行为. 它揭示了不同的稳定结果,如服从或不服从锁定规则,可以根据激励和政策选择出现.
科学领域:
- 游戏理论 游戏理论
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共政策 公共政策
背景情况:
- 在实施和遵守缓解政策方面,COVID-19大流行带来了复杂的挑战.
- 了解决策者和公众之间的动态相互作用对于有效的流行病应对至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了模拟政治家和公民之间关于大流行减缓政策和合规的进化非合作游戏.
- 解释COVID-19大流行期间观察到的各种政策和公民行为.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个进化的非合作游戏模型.
- 分析了与感染水平和参数选择有关的模型.
- 在政策措施和合规行为之间模拟过渡.
主要成果:
- 确定了多个稳定的平衡的存在 (例如,政策遵守与不遵守).
- 证明参数选择会影响这些平衡的路径.
- 展示了短期的政策转型 (硬/软措施) 和长期的趋同到稳定状态.
结论:
- 政治家和公民的激励极大地影响了流行病政策的结果.
- 该模型为政策实施和公共合规的动态提供了洞察力.
- 了解这些游戏理论动态可以为未来的公共卫生危机管理提供信息.
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