使用冠状病毒累积数据进行多变量时间序列短期预测
Suryanshi Mishra1, Tinku Singh2, Manish Kumar2
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, SHUATS, Prayagraj, U.P. India.
概括
这项研究使用数学和深度学习模型预测COVID-19 (冠状病毒) 病例和死亡. 长期短期记忆 (LSTM) 模型在短期流行病预测中表现出卓越的准确性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 计算生物学 计算生物学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 冠状病毒是高度传染的呼吸道病原体.
- 机器学习和时间序列分析可以分析流行病数据进行预测.
- 准确的预测模型对于打击传染病至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了对累积的COVID-19发病率和死亡率进行短期预测.
- 为了比较流行病预测的数学和深度学习模型的准确性.
- 分析疫苗接种,温度和湿度对病毒传播的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了扩展的易受-暴露-感染-恢复 (SEIR),长期短期记忆 (LSTM) 和矢量自回归 (VAR) 模型.
- 将住院,死亡,疫苗接种和隔离数据整合到SEIR模型中.
- 使用平均绝对误差 (MAE),根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 和平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE) 进行评估.
主要成果:
- 长短期记忆 (LSTM) 深度学习模型实现了最高的预测准确度.
- 对八个严重受影响的国家进行了比较分析.
- 研究了疫苗接种的影响,环境温度和相对湿度对病毒传播的影响.
结论:
- 深度学习模型,特别是LSTM,为短期COVID-19预测提供了卓越的性能.
- 结合多种数据的预测模型可以提高预测的准确性.
- 环境因素和疫苗接种策略显著影响流行病轨迹.
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