撒哈拉以南非洲地区升的通货膨胀:财政根源?
Olumide O Olaoye1, O J Omokanmi1, Mosab I Tabash2
1Thomas Adewumi University, Oko, Nigeria.
Quality & quantity
|June 26, 2023
概括
财政政策推动了撒哈拉以南非洲的通货膨胀,而不仅仅是货币供应. 超过GDP的60.59%的公共债务加剧了通货膨胀,需要单位增长率.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 宏观经济学 宏观经济学
- 公共财政是公共财政.
背景情况:
- 撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) 面临着持续的通胀压力.
- 在SSA中,财政政策和通货膨胀之间的相互作用需要细致的调查.
研究的目的:
- 分析财政政策对44个撒哈拉以南非洲国家的通胀的影响.
- 确定公共债务的门,超出门后,通货膨胀会加剧.
- 确定可持续增长的最佳通货膨胀率框架.
主要方法:
- 非线性系统通用时刻方法 (系统GMM).
- 动态面板值估计技术.
- 分析了44个SAS国家 (2003-2020) 的数据.
主要成果:
- 积极的财政政策冲击 (公共债务增加) 显著增加通货膨胀.
- 货币供应对通货膨胀的影响微不足道,这表明财政主导地位.
- 确定公共债务门为GDP的60.59%,超越该门后,通货膨胀升级.
- 财政政策有助于货币供应对通货膨胀的影响,但与货币数量理论不成比例.
结论:
- 在SSA的通货膨胀主要是财政性质的,需要财政整合.
- 货币政策本身不足以打击目前的通货膨胀趋势.
- 在单位数字框架内 (约4%) 控制通货膨胀对于刺激经济增长和减少南非的通货膨胀压力至关重要.
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