恐惧本身就是恐惧,恐惧本身就是恐惧. 恐惧是锁定有效性的决定因素吗?
Vincenzo Alfano1,2, Salvatore Ercolano3,2
1DiSEGIM, University of Napoli Parthenope, Italy & Center for Economic Studies CES-ifo, Germany.
概括
在封锁之前更高的COVID-19死亡率增加了封锁的有效性. 这种"恐惧效应"鼓励人们遵守公共卫生措施,减少新病例. 对死亡人数的沟通是成功封锁的关键.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 封锁是管理COVID-19等流行病的关键非药物干预措施.
- 封锁的经济成本和有效性是持续辩论的主题.
- 潜在的"恐惧效应"可能会影响公众对封锁措施的坚持.
研究的目的:
- 调查"恐惧效应"在COVID-19封锁的有效性中的作用.
- 为了确定更高的COVID-19死亡人数是否会影响人口行为和封锁遵守.
- 分析人均死亡人数与封锁后COVID-19新病例减少之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 来自46个国家的数据的定性和定量分析.
- 基于实施前人均COVID-19死亡的四分位数的封锁有效性的比较.
- 在封锁措施后,COVID-19新病例减少的评估.
主要成果:
- 在封锁前,人均COVID-19死亡率较高的国家在减少新病例方面表现更好.
- 在人均死亡率最高的四分位数中,与最差的四分位数相比,人均死亡率更高的四分位数经历了更大的有效性.
- 这表明报告的死亡和更好的锁定结果之间存在相关性.
结论:
- 报告的COVID-19死亡人数显著影响封锁的有效性.
- 对死亡人数的有效沟通可以提高人们对公共卫生措施的坚持.
- "恐惧效应"是流行病期间非药物干预成功的一个重要因素.
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