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评估政府间气候变化小组 (IPCC) 的方程,以预测地中海饮食养的哺乳母牛的肠道甲排放

S Colombini¹, A Rota Graziosi¹, G Galassi¹

¹Dipartimento di Scienze Agrarie e Ambientali, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano 20133, Italy.

JDS communications

|June 26, 2023

概括

政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 的二级模型可以预测地中海饮食中的哺乳母牛的甲 (CH4) 排放. 使用地中海地区特定的可消化能 (DE) 因素提高了预测准确性.

科学领域:

农业科学农业科学
环境科学环境科学
动物科学动物科学

背景情况:

肠道甲 (CH4) 排放是奶牛养殖中温室气体的重要贡献者.
准确的预测模型对于制定畜牧业减缓战略至关重要.
地中海饮食,通常是基于料和干草,具有独特的营养特征,影响CH4的产生.

研究的目的:

评估IPCC二级模型 (2006年和2019年) 的准确性,以预测地中海饮食养的哺乳母牛的肠道CH4排放.
评估CH4转换因子 (Ym) 和可消化能量 (DE) 对模型预测性能的影响.
开发和验证地中海饮食的特定二级模型.

主要方法:

在呼吸室中利用了哺乳乳奶牛的体内数据,这些奶牛在呼吸室中食地中海饮食.
评估了五个IPCC Tier 2模型,其中包括IPCC平均值和体内测量,具有不同的Ym和DE值.
使用意大利和独立数据集推导和验证了地中海饮食特异性 (MED) 模型.

主要成果:

与体内平均值 (381 g/d) 相比,2YMIV,2YMIV和1YMIV模型在预测每日CH4排放 (分别为384g,377g和377g/d) 中的准确度最高.
1YM模型显示了最高的精度 (斜率偏差 = 1.88%; r = 0.63) 和一致性相关系数 (0.579).
在一个独立的数据集上,MED模型实现了0.485的一致性相关系数,预测了397g CH4/d,而体内值为396g CH4/d.

结论:

2019年IPCC的平均值为地中海饮食中的奶牛的CH4排放提供了充分的预测.
纳入特定区域的可消化能 (DE) 值显著提高了地中海饮食中CH4排放预测模型的准确性.
开发的MED模型显示,在这种饮食环境中,更精确的CH4排放估计具有前景.

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