对于B.1.1.529SARS-Cov-2 Omicron变种的分数顺序数学模型与隔离和疫苗接种
S Dickson1, S Padmasekaran1, Pushpendra Kumar2
1Mathematics, Periyar University, Periyar Palakalainagar, Salem, Tamilnadu 636011 India.
International journal of dynamics and control
|June 26, 2023
概括
这项研究为Omicron变种 (B.1.1.529 SARS-CoV-2) 引入了分数顺序的非线性模型,包括疫苗接种和隔离. 模型 模型的模型
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 传染病建模 传染病建模
背景情况:
- 欧米克朗变种 (B.1.1.529 SARS-CoV-2) 构成了重大的公共卫生挑战.
- 了解传播动态对于有效的控制策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为Omicron变种传播提出了一种新的分数级非线性数学模型.
- 将COVID-19疫苗接种和隔离措施纳入模型.
- 分析印度泰米尔纳德邦的疫情传播情况.
主要方法:
- 开发一个分数级非线性数学模型.
- 模拟模型解决方案以确保积极性和有限性.
- 估计基本的繁殖数量.
- 使用来自印度泰米尔纳德州的真实世界Omicron变异流行病数据进行验证.
主要成果:
- 该研究成功模拟了分数顺序模型的阳性和边界性.
- 估计的繁殖数量为泰米尔纳德州潜在的流行病传播提供了洞察力.
- 模型预测与真正的Omicron变种流行病数据保持一致.
结论:
- 分数顺序模型为了解Omicron变体动态提供了一个有价值的工具.
- 疫苗接种和隔离的整合凸显了它们在疫情控制中的重要性.
- 该研究使用区域流行病数据验证了该模型的适用性.
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