英国和德国的COVID-19通货膨胀权重
Francesco Grigoli1, Evgenia Pugacheva1
1IMF, United States of America.
概括
由于COVID-19大流行,消费者支出发生了变化,影响了通货膨胀计算. 更新的消费者价格指数 (CPI) 权重对于准确测量生活成本变化和为政策提供信息至关重要.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 消费者行为 消费者行为
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- COVID-19 流行病迅速改变了全球消费模式.
- 官方通货膨胀统计数据,如消费者价格指数 (CPI),由于固定加权期,往往落后于实时经济变化.
- 这种滞后可能导致通胀衡量的偏差,特别是在显著的行为变化时期.
研究的目的:
- 分析大流行引起的消费变化对英国和德国通货膨胀指标的影响.
- 使用实时信用卡交易数据量化由此产生的通胀偏差.
- 评估这些变化对不同的人口和支出群体的异质影响.
主要方法:
- 利用来自英国和德国的匿名信用卡交易数据.
- 用固定CPI权重计算的比较通货膨胀率与反映实际消费变化的动态更新权重相比.
- 分析了跨年龄人口结构以及在线和现场消费之间的消费模式变化.
主要成果:
- 在大流行期间,消费者最初经历的通货膨胀率高于官方固定权重指数所指出的水平.
- 随后,消费者所经历的通货膨胀率低于固定加权指数所表明的.
- 在年龄组和消费道 (在线与面对面) 之间观察到消费模式及其对购买力影响的显著差异.
结论:
- 消费者价格指数 (CPI) 的通货膨胀指标包含经常更新的权重,可以更准确地反映生活成本.
- 这些动态指数对于理解人口群体间异质影响是有价值的.
- 消费的持续变化需要定期更新CPI权重,以有效地告知货币政策和社会支持措施.
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