COVID-19和商品定价溢价:来自中国市场的证据
Lu Zhang1, Pei-Lin Hsieh2, Haiqiang Chen3
1The Department of Finance, School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.
概括
由于COVID-19的流行,中国的商品定价溢价大幅增加了30%以上. 这种影响,特别是对农业未来的影响,超过了以前的贸易战的影响,突出显示了疫情的蔓延.
科学领域:
- 金融经济学 金融经济学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 市场分析市场分析
背景情况:
- COVID-19 疫情造成了前所未有的全球经济混乱.
- 了解其对商品市场的影响对于经济稳定至关重要.
- 之前的研究已经记录了影响商品定价溢价的各种因素.
研究的目的:
- 调查COVID-19流行病对商品定价溢价的影响.
- 为了比较流行病对这些保费的影响与贸易战的影响.
- 分析基础动量溢价的影响,特别是农业期货.
主要方法:
- 在事件研究方法中使用差异回归.
- 总结了已确定的基准定价因素的解释力.
- 进行了部分样本回归来验证发现.
主要成果:
- 记录了大宗商品基础溢价的大幅增加,由于大流行,超过了30%.
- 观察到基础动力溢价的增加,特别是对于农业期货.
- 发现COVID-19大流行对商品市场的影响比贸易战更为重要.
结论:
- COVID-19大流行对中国商品期货定价溢价产生了相当大的和可衡量的影响.
- 农业期货经历了基础动力溢价显著上升.
- 流行病对市场的影响比贸易争端更为明显.
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