评估热带流域的长期降雨趋势和变化 Brantas,印度尼西亚:一个方法来量化卫星降雨数据,地面降雨数据和小规模农民问卷之间的一致性
Bagus Setiabudi Wiwoho1, Ike Sari Astuti1, Purwanto Purwanto1
1Department of Geography, Universitas Negeri Malang, Malang, 65145 Indonesia.
概括
这项研究将科学降雨数据与布兰塔斯流域农民的感知联系起来. 结合这些来源对于有效的水资源管理和气候政策至关重要.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
背景情况:
- 在潮湿的热带流域有效的水资源管理需要在气象数据和社会观念之间达成共识.
- 布兰塔斯流域需要水资源管理和政策制定的综合方法.
研究的目的:
- 分析布兰塔斯流域的长期降雨特征.
- 建立科学数据 (CHIRPS卫星,雨表) 和当地农民对降雨的看法之间的共同理解.
主要方法:
- 从科学数据中对六个降雨特征进行统计分析.
- 为农民开发基于科学发现的结构化问卷.
- 构建一个共识矩阵来评估科学数据和农民看法之间的一致性.
主要成果:
- 两个降雨属性显示高一致,四个有中度一致,一个数据源之间的一致性较低.
- 在研究区域内确定了降雨特征的协议和差异.
- 不一致的原因是翻译的难度,农业系统的复杂性,现象的性质和农民的记录能力.
结论:
- 整合科学和社会数据的综合方法对于稳健的气候政策制定至关重要.
- 了解差异是改善科学数据与当地对水资源管理的看法之间的联系的关键.
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