财政政策是否应该在货币联盟中集中? 一个动态的游戏方法
Dmitri Blueschke1, Viktoria Blueschke-Nikolaeva1, Reinhard Neck1
1Department of Economics, University of Klagenfurt, Universitaetsstr. 65-67, 9020 Klagenfurt, Austria.
概括
货币联盟中的合作政策提供了最好的结果,优于非合作方案. 本研究对欧元区的动态财政相互作用和冲击进行了建模,强调了经济,价格和财政稳定之间的权衡.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 政治经济学就是政治经济学.
- 游戏理论 游戏理论
背景情况:
- 货币联盟面临着成员国之间复杂的财政互动和一个共同的中央银行.
- 在一个联盟 (核心与外围) 内的异质财政行为需要细微的建模.
- 最近的危机 (金融,主权债务,COVID-19,能源) 强调了分析抗震能力的必要性.
研究的目的:
- 在外部冲击下分析三个参与者的货币联盟中的动态财政相互作用.
- 模拟和比较欧元区的合作和非合作政策场景.
- 调查联盟动态及其对经济,价格和财政稳定的影响.
主要方法:
- 对欧元区的动态模型进行校准,区分核心和边缘财政区块.
- 模拟各种联盟情景:财政联盟,边缘联盟和财政稳定联盟.
- 应用OPTGAME算法来计算合作的帕雷托平衡和非合作的纳什平衡解决方案.
主要成果:
- 与非合作方案相比,完全合作的解决方案显示出更好的结果.
- 非合作平衡揭示了经济增长,价格稳定和财政稳定之间的关键权衡.
- 该模型捕捉了外围地区的不同财政态度及其对工会动态的影响.
结论:
- 合作政策制定对于在货币联盟中最大限度地提高福利和稳定至关重要.
- 了解非合作动态为危机期间的政策权衡提供了关键的见解.
- 该研究强调了协调财政政策的重要性,以应对经济和地缘政治冲击.
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