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汇率波动和印度-美国商品贸易:第三国效应的证据
Javed Iqbal1, Misbah Nosheen2, Mark Wohar3
1School of Economics, Quaid-I-Azam University Islamabad and Fulbright Postdoc Fellow, University of Nebraska at Omaha, Omaha, USA.
汇率的不确定性对印度产生重大影响.
科学领域:
- 国际经济学 国际经济学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 贸易政策 贸易政策
背景情况:
- 讨论了汇率不确定性对贸易流动的影响.
- 之前的研究往往忽略了双边贸易分析中的"第三国"效应.
研究的目的:
- 调查第三国风险对印美商品贸易的影响.
- 分析卢比-美元和卢比-日元波动对印度出口和进口业务的具体影响.
主要方法:
- 利用79个印度商品出口和81个进口企业的时间序列数据.
- 采用计量经济学分析来评估汇率波动的影响.
主要成果:
- 第三国风险在美元/日元和卢比/日元波动方面显著影响特定行业的贸易量.
- 卢比美元波动对15个出口行业和25个进口行业产生短期影响,对9个出口行业和15个进口行业产生长期影响.
- 卢比-日元波动对9个出口行业和9个进口行业产生短期和长期影响.
结论:
- 第三国风险是了解印度双边贸易动态的关键因素.
- 汇率波动,特别是涉及卢比的波动,对印度各行各业的企业有明显的短期和长期影响.
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