解开GFC后信贷放缓的需求和供应方面的决定因素:印度的视角
Saurabh Ghosh1, Snehal Herwadkar1, Radheshyam Verma2
1Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Fort, Mumbai, 400001 India.
概括
需求方面的因素,而不是供应,减缓了印度GFC后的信贷增长. 投资下降和全球瓶削弱了需求,需要为银行信贷扩张提供政策支持.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 金融市场 金融市场
- 新兴市场经济体 新兴市场经济体
背景情况:
- 新兴市场经济体 (EME) 在经济扩张方面严重依赖银行信贷.
- 了解信贷增长的驱动因素对于经济稳定和政策制定至关重要.
- 缓慢的信贷增长阶段需要确定供应或需求因素是否占主导地位.
研究的目的:
- 在新兴市场经济中实证地调查信贷放缓的主要驱动因素.
- 区分供给侧与需求侧因素对银行信贷增长疲软的贡献.
- 根据政策建议,以刺激EME的信贷需求.
主要方法:
- 使用印度经济数据进行正式的经验分析.
- 应用一个不平衡模型来评估信贷市场动态.
- 分析涵盖了全球金融危机 (GFC) 后和大流行前的时期.
主要成果:
- 需求侧因素被确定为信贷放缓的主要原因.
- 观察到足够的资金供应和监管行动以减轻资产质量风险.
- 投资需求下降和全球供给侧瓶加剧了需求侧的弱点.
结论:
- 由投资和全球因素驱动的需求方面的弱点是印度信贷放缓的主要原因.
- 政策干预应侧重于加强信贷需求,而不是仅仅增加信贷供应.
- 持续的政策支持对于保持在EME中健康的信贷需求至关重要.
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