在印度研究费舍尔效应的研究
1Research Scholar, Mumbai School of Economics and Public Policy (Autonomous), University of Mumbai, Maharashtra, India.
概括
这项研究研究了印度的费舍尔效应,发现预期通货膨胀和利率之间存在负长期关系,这与理论相反. 这表明可能是由于货币政策转变导致的断开.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 货币政策 货币政策 货币政策
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 费舍尔效应认为预期通胀和名义利率之间存在积极的关系.
- 了解这种关系对于货币政策和金融市场稳定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 根据费舍尔效应理论分析印度名义利率和预期通胀之间的关系.
- 通过各种措施调查预期通胀和利率之间的长期协同整合和因果关系.
主要方法:
- 自行回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 边界测试方法.
- 格兰杰因果关系测试.
- 使用核心指数,批发价格指数 (WPI) 和消费者价格指数 (CPI) 分析通货膨胀,并调用货币和国库账单利率.
主要成果:
- 印度预期通货膨胀和利率之间存在协同整合关系的证据.
- 与费舍尔效应相反,人们观察到一种负面的长期关系.
- 在预期的WPI通货膨胀率和利率之间,以及预期的CPI通货膨胀率和利率之间,尽管CPI缺乏协同整合,但发现了格兰杰因果关系.
结论:
- 该研究表明,印度的预期通货膨胀率和名义利率之间存在差异.
- 诸如灵活的通货膨胀目标和多个货币政策目标等因素可能解释了这种脱节.
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