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Updated: Jul 25, 2025

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一个数据驱动的优化模型来应对COVID-19大流行:一个案例研究.
Amin Eshkiti1, Fatemeh Sabouhi1, Ali Bozorgi-Amiri1
1School of Industrial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
概括
这项研究开发了一种使用人工神经网络和随机编程来优化COVID-19患者管理医院供应链的双相方法. 该模型有效地分配资源并最大限度地减少疾病传播,确保在中断期间的服务连续性.
科学领域:
- 运营研究 运营研究
- 医疗保健管理的管理
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- COVID-19给全球医疗保健系统带来了压力,导致住院限制和死亡风险增加.
- 在流行病期间,对医院资源,药物分配和废物的有效管理至关重要.
- 患者数量的不确定性和潜在的中断需要强大的供应链网络设计.
研究的目的:
- 为住院COVID-19患者设计一个优化的供应链网络.
- 为了有效地分发药物和医疗用品,同时管理医院的废物.
- 通过数据驱动的方法来解决患者需求和设施中断的不确定性.
主要方法:
- 一种两阶段的方法,将人工神经网络 (ANN) 结合起来,用于需求预测和K-Means用于场景减少.
- 开发一个多目标,多时期,两阶段的随机编程模型.
- 纳入目标:最大限度地提高分配与需求的比率,最大限度地降低疾病传播风险,最大限度地减少运输时间.
主要成果:
- 在缺乏现有基础设施的高密度地区确定了临时设施的最佳位置.
- 临时医院可以满足高达2.6%的总需求,减轻现有设施的压力.
- 拟议的模型即使在中断期间也保持了理想的分配与需求比率.
结论:
- 该研究为与流行病相关的医疗保健供应链管理提供了有效的框架.
- 在需求激增期间,临时设施对于维持医疗保健服务水平至关重要.
- 随机编程模型成功地减轻了与需求不确定性和设施中断相关的风险.
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