经济活动,财政空间和COVID-19制措施的类型
1International Monetary Fund, 1900 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20431 USA.
概括
智能COVID-19制措施,如测试,比锁定更好地平衡感染控制与经济活动. 快速响应时间和低债务等初始条件也可以减少干扰.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 国际金融 国际金融
背景情况:
- 制COVID-19的措施对公共卫生,经济活动和主权风险产生重大影响.
- 不同的制策略在管理这些权衡方面的有效性仍然是一个关键的研究问题.
研究的目的:
- 分析不同类型的COVID-19制措施如何影响感染率,经济表现和主权风险之间的平衡.
- 确定能减轻制政策造成的经济和金融混乱的因素.
主要方法:
- 使用当地投影方法,在1.5年内从44个发达和新兴经济体获得高频率的每日数据.
- 构建欧元区国家每日财政公告的新型数据库.
主要成果:
- 智能制措施 (例如测试) 在管理权衡方面比物理限制 (例如锁定) 更有效.
- 较快的公共卫生响应时间和较低的初始公共债务水平减少了制措施的破坏性影响.
- 在欧元区,大型财政支持计划与智能措施相结合,显著改善了主权风险.
结论:
- 选择COVID-19制战略极大地影响经济和金融稳定.
- 政策决策应考虑初始的经济和公共卫生条件,以实现最佳实施.
- 建议将有针对性的财政支持和智能公共卫生措施结合起来,以减轻流行病期间的主权风险.
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