在COVID-19期间的消费和收入预期
Giovanni Immordino1, Tullio Jappelli1, Tommaso Oliviero1
1Department of Economics and Statistics and CSEF, University of Naples Federico II, Napoli, NA Italy.
概括
家庭经济前景,而不是健康问题,塑造了意大利2022年消费预期. 预期的收入和GDP增长显著影响了支出计划,特别是对富裕家庭的支出计划.
科学领域:
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 消费者行为分析 消费者行为分析
- 社会经济学研究 社会经济学研究
背景情况:
- 了解影响消费支出的因素对于经济预测至关重要.
- 由于COVID-19的流行,造成了前所未有的不确定性,影响了家庭的经济预期.
- 之前的研究已经探讨了收入和健康对消费的影响,但对它们在健康危机期间的相互作用的研究较少.
研究的目的:
- 调查微观经济和宏观经济预期对意大利家庭2022年消费预期的影响.
- 区分收入增长预期和健康危机对各种消费类型 (在家,外出,在线) 的影响.
- 分析收入风险感知如何影响不同财富水平的消费预期.
主要方法:
- 利用了2021年11月收集的意大利家庭调查数据.
- 采用回归分析,将个人收入和消费预期联系起来.
- 在不同类别的消费中进行区分 (在家,不在家,在线,总量).
主要成果:
- 预期的家庭收入和预期的国内生产总值 (GDP) 增长与整体消费预期有着强烈的积极关联.
- 感知收入风险与预期的消费增长有积极的相关性,但这种影响在富裕家庭中更为明显.
- 发现健康危机预期是研究期间 (2022) 消费预期的微不足道驱动因素.
结论:
- 经济前景,特别是预期的收入和GDP增长,是意大利2022年消费者支出意向的主要决定因素.
- 与较不富裕家庭相比,富裕家庭的消费预期对收入风险更敏感.
- 在此期间,健康问题在塑造消费预期方面发挥了很小的作用,这表明经济因素主导了决策.
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