美国和加拿大在COVID-19期间以食品为基础的双边贸易平衡表现
Serdar Ongan1, Huseyin Karamelikli2, Ismet Gocer3
1University of South Florida-Department of Economics, Tampa, FL USA.
Journal fur Verbraucherschutz und Lebensmittelsicherheit = Journal of consumer protection and food safety
|June 26, 2023
概括
这项研究分析了美国与加拿大贸易的J曲线假设,发现了对不同J曲线模型的不同支持. 结果表明,在与加拿大贸易的州级政策审查中,假设没有得到支持.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 国际贸易 国际贸易 国际贸易
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- COVID-19扰乱了全球粮食供应链,导致出口限制,突出了贸易平衡的脆弱性.
- 负的粮食贸易余额表明对进口的依赖,强调需要强有力的粮食政策.
- 现有的J曲线假设研究侧重于国家一级的分析,可能会忽视国家特定的经济变化.
研究的目的:
- 调查美国各州与加拿大的食品贸易关系中的J曲线假设.
- 分析次国家一级的贸易平衡动态,并考虑到国家特定的经济特征.
- 通过地图以视觉形式表示发现,说明对美国各州不同的J曲线模型的支持.
主要方法:
- 使用线性和非线性自回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 模型来分析贸易数据.
- 应用州级分析以捕捉经济人口规模,税率和行政结构的异质性.
- 生成图形表示,映射美国各州对J曲线和J曲线反向假设的支持.
主要成果:
- 相当多的美国州 (15) 支持不对称的反向J曲线假设.
- 较少的国家 (8) 支持基于食物的不对称J曲线假设.
- 还观察到对对称J曲线 (9个状态) 和对称逆J曲线 (2个状态) 假设的支持.
结论:
- 在与加拿大的贸易中,J曲线假设的适用性在美国各州之间有很大差异.
- 不支持J曲线假设的国家的政策制定者应该重新评估他们与加拿大的双边食品贸易战略.
- 国家层面的分析为量身定制的贸易政策制定提供了关键的见解.
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