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舒佩特遇见金发女:企业毁灭的伤痕效应

Beatriz González¹, Enrique Moral-Benito¹, Isabel Soler²

¹Banco de España, Madrid, Spain.

SERIEs : journal of the Spanish Economic Association

|June 26, 2023

概括

公司退出以反转的U形影响总因子生产率 (TFP) 的增长. 适度的公司退出通过舒彼得式的清洗来促进TFP,但过度的退出通过破坏网络和信贷来损害生产力.

科学领域:

经济学经济学经济学
计量经济学计量经济学
公司动力学

背景情况:

公司退出和总生产率之间的关系是复杂的,并未完全理解.
以前的模型通常假定线性效应,未能捕捉在现实数据中观察到的非线性动态.

研究的目的:

调查企业退出率与总因素生产率 (TFP) 增长之间的非线性关系.
开发和校准一个理论模型,解释观察到的反转U形关系.
分析不同退出冲击严重程度对TFP增长和经济复苏的影响.

主要方法:

对西班牙企业级数据的实证分析,以确定反转的U形关系.
开发一个包含退出溢出效应的公司动态模型,以实证发现进行校准.
使用校准模型对反事实场景进行模拟,以评估不同的冲击严重程度.

主要成果:

证实了公司退出和TFP增长之间的反转U形关系:适度的退出增强了TFP,而非常高的退出率减少了它.
校准模型合理化了这种非线性,突出了高退出率的放大效应和干扰 (例如,生产网络,信贷供应).
轻微的退出冲击 (GFC级) 会对TFP增长产生积极影响,加速复苏.
严重的退出冲击 (高于GFC水平) 会对TFP增长产生负面影响,因为高效率企业被淘汰,减缓复苏.

结论:

坚定的退出并不总是有利的;它对TFP增长的影响取决于退出率.
政策干预可能需要考虑公司退出冲击的严重程度,以减轻对生产力的负面影响.
了解公司退出溢出效应对于预测和管理总体经济表现至关重要.

关键词:

在 COVID-19 疫情中,公司动态公司动态坚定的出口出口.生产力生产力生产力

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