COVID-19,封锁和国际贸易:来自公司级数据的证据
João Amador1,2, Carlos Melo Gouveia1, Ana Catarina Pimenta1,3
1Banco de Portugal, Lisbon, Portugal.
概括
COVID-19封锁对国际贸易产生了重大影响,影响了葡萄牙公司的出口和进口. 大型企业和融入全球价值链的企业经历了这些贸易中断带来的更严重的负面影响.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 国际贸易 国际贸易 国际贸易
- 宏观经济学 宏观经济学
背景情况:
- COVID-19大流行和随后的封锁严重扰乱了全球供应链和国际贸易流.
- 区分卫生危机的影响与贸易上的流动性限制对于经济分析至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化伙伴国封锁对2020-2021年葡萄牙企业出口和进口活动的影响.
- 评估卫生危机与封锁政策对国际贸易的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了葡萄牙企业的每月企业级贸易数据.
- 采用高频,细粒度数据来确定贸易障碍的具体影响.
主要成果:
- 封锁对出口和进口产生了相当大的,类似的负面影响,而卫生危机对出口的影响略大.
- 较大的企业,集中贸易的企业和全球价值链中的企业受到封锁的影响不成比例.
- 具有高进口含量和关键增值合作伙伴的行业面临更大的负面影响.
结论:
- 封锁政策对国际贸易构成重大障碍,在各类企业和行业之间产生不同的影响.
- 虽然出口在2020年中期显示出适应的迹象,但进口适应仍然不太清楚.
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