大封锁,不确定性和贸易:对进口的不对称影响
Chandan Sharma1, Ritesh Kumar Mishra2
1Indian Institute of Management Lucknow, Lucknow, India.
Empirical economics
|June 26, 2023
概括
冠状病毒的流行病.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 国际贸易 国际贸易 国际贸易
- 供应链管理 供应链管理
背景情况:
- 由于冠状病毒大流行,全球经济面临前所未有的破坏.
- 为控制疫情而实施的紧急措施对全球供应链和国际贸易产生了重大影响.
- 了解这些影响对于经济性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查与流行病相关的严格措施对印度进口需求的影响.
- 分析国内外限制对印度贸易流动的影响.
- 检查经济政策不确定性在进口动态中的作用.
主要方法:
- 利用印度及其主要贸易伙伴的双边每月进口数据.
- 采用计量经济学分析来评估严格措施和不确定性的影响.
- 研究了限制和不确定性对进口需求的不对称影响.
主要成果:
- 疫情严格措施对印度的进口需求产生了积极的影响,这表明在国内供应链中断期间对进口的依赖程度增加.
- 进口原产国限制对印度进口产生了负面影响,扰乱了海外的生产和供应链.
- 印度和原产国经济政策不确定性与印度进口有负相关性.
结论:
- 疫情限制和经济不确定性对印度的进口需求产生了重大,往往不对称的影响.
- 印度的进口模式在应对国内和国际流行病相关的干扰时发生了转变.
- 政策干预应考虑国际贸易中限制和不确定性的复杂相互作用.
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