油价冲击和中国的消费者和企业家情绪:贝叶斯的结构VAR方法
1Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, 100006 China.
概括
油价上令人惊地提高了中国消费者和企业家的信心. 这些积极影响对企业家来说更为强烈,影响消费者的收入和就业预期.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 了解油价波动对经济情绪的影响对于政策制定者来说至关重要.
- 中国在全球石油市场上的重要作用需要对国内石油价格冲击效应进行研究.
研究的目的:
- 研究油价冲击对中国消费者和企业家情绪的微妙影响.
- 为了区分石油价格冲击对各种消费者和商业部门的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了一种新的贝叶斯推理结构向量自回归 (SVAR) 模型.
- 分析了影响石油价格的石油供应和需求冲击.
主要成果:
- 由于供需冲击导致的油价上,对消费者和企业家的情绪产生了积极的影响.
- 对企业家情绪的积极影响比对消费者的情绪更为明显.
- 消费者信心受到收入满意度增加和未来就业预期改善的推动,影响了储蓄和消费,但没有影响汽车购买.
- 在企业类型和行业中观察到石油价格冲击的不同影响.
结论:
- 油价冲击可能会对中国的情绪产生刺激,而不是不利的影响.
- 政策干预可能需要考虑消费者和企业家对油价波动的异质反应.
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