私人和公共消费之间的替代的时间内弹性:新的证据和影响
John Nana Francois1, Andrew Keinsley2
1Fiscal Policy and Sustainable Growth Unit, World Bank, Washington, USA.
Empirical economics
|June 26, 2023
概括
这项研究估计了17个欧洲国家的私人和公共消费之间的跨时间替代弹性 (IES). 结果显示,IES在各国之间存在显著差异,影响了财政政策的有效性.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 公共财政是公共财政.
- 宏观经济学 宏观经济学
背景情况:
- 了解私人和公共消费之间的关系对于财政政策分析至关重要.
- 置换的跨时间弹性 (IES) 量化了家庭如何在私人和公共物品之间进行置换.
- 现有的研究往往假定在各国之间有一个统一的IES,可能会忽视显著的异质性.
研究的目的:
- 估计欧洲国家私人和公共消费之间的替代时间弹性 (IES).
- 调查各国IES的异质性及其决定因素.
- 评估IES估计对财政政策有效性的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了17个欧洲国家的面板数据,从1970年到2018年.
- 使用计量经济学技术来估计IES.
- 分析了IES异质性与公共支出组成 (例如,卫生,公共秩序) 之间的相关性.
主要成果:
- 欧洲国家的估计平均IES在0.6和0.74.4之间.
- 在IES中观察到重要的跨国异质性,从意大利的0.3到爱尔兰的1.3不等.
- IES与卫生支出份额有正相关性,与公共秩序和安全支出份额有负相关性.
- 在IES和政府规模之间发现了U形关系.
结论:
- 在欧洲国家,私人和公共消费很可能是Edgeworth的补充,基于估计的IES和替代的时间间弹性.
- 涉及政府消费变化的财政政策将因IES异质性而在不同国家产生不同的挤进或挤出效应.
- 公共支出的组成和政府总体规模是影响私人和公共消费之间的可替代性的关键因素.
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