不确定性的宏观经济影响:基于谷歌趋势的印度分析
Bhanu Pratap1, Nalin Priyaranjan1
1Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai, India.
概括
这项研究引入了印度新的经济政策不确定性指数,揭示了增加的不确定性对产出增长产生负面影响,并通过减少投资推动通胀. 这一新指数提高了经济预测的准确性.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 宏观经济分析 宏观经济分析
背景情况:
- 经济政策的不确定性是影响新兴市场经济体的一个重要因素.
- 现有的措施可能无法捕捉印度相关的不确定性高频波动.
- 了解不确定性的驱动因素和影响对于经济稳定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为印度开发一种新的高频经济政策不确定性指数.
- 调查经济不确定性与印度宏观经济之间的因果关系.
- 评估新的不确定性指数的预测表现.
主要方法:
- 使用互联网搜索强度数据构建经济政策不确定性指数.
- 使用结构向量自回归与仪表变量 (SVAR-IV) 框架的应用.
- 预测准确度与其他宏观经济不确定性指标的比较.
主要成果:
- 拟议的指数有效地捕捉了围绕重大国内和全球事件的不确定性峰值.
- 经济政策不确定性的激增与印度产出增长减少和通货膨胀增加有因果关系.
- 不确定性的影响主要是在供给方面,由私人投资减少所驱动.
结论:
- 新的高频指数为监测印度经济政策不确定性提供了有价值的工具.
- 经济政策的不确定性对印度的宏观经济表现产生了重大和有害的因果关系.
- 纳入这种不确定性指数可以提高宏观经济预测模型的准确性.
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