贸易对COVID-19有多有弹性?
Maria Bas1, Ana Fernandes2, Caroline Paunov3
1University of Paris 1, CES, France.
概括
COVID-19大流行影响了全球出口,产品严重依赖单一供应商,面临下降. 然而,自动化生产和多元化供应链在危机期间增强了出口性.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 国际贸易 国际贸易 国际贸易
- 供应链管理 供应链管理
背景情况:
- "COVID-19"疫情对全球贸易和供应链造成了前所未有的破坏.
- 根据产品特征,了解大流行对出口的影响差异对于经济政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析出口对COVID-19流行病的短期性.
- 确定在危机期间影响出口业绩的产品特性.
主要方法:
- 利用了全球每月产品级出口数据到美国,日本和27个欧盟国家 (2018年1月至2021年12月).
- 检查了产品特征 (投入供应商依赖,生产自动化) 和大流行期间出口波动之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 对单一投入供应商高度依赖的产品 (例如中国) 经历了显著的出口下降.
- 具有自动化生产流程的产品显示出口业绩有所提高.
- 随着时间的推移,非技术密集型出口的脆弱性下降了.
- 多元化的外国投入依赖最初阻碍了,但后来改善了出口性.
结论:
- 产品特性显著介导出口对COVID-19冲击的反应.
- 供应链多样化和生产自动化是危机中出口弹性的主要因素.
- 政策干预可能需要支持脆弱的出口部门.
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