在COVID-19流行病的影响下,估计中国的CO2排放量,使用一种新的分数多变量非线性灰色模型
Wen Lei1, Shuhua Mao1, Yonghong Zhang1
1School of Science, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, 430070 China.
概括
在2020年,COVID-19大流行使中国的二氧化碳排放量减少了3.15%. 一个新的分数灰色模型准确地预测这些排放,帮助低碳转型政策.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 气候变化建模模型
背景情况:
- COVID-19 疫情对全球经济复苏和中国的经济增长产生了重大影响.
- 疫情导致中国空气污染和温室气体排放 (包括二氧化碳) 显著减少.
- 准确预测中国的二氧化碳排放对经济发展和能源消费政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在COVID-19大流行影响下,开发和验证中国二氧化碳排放的新型预测模型.
- 通过结合分数计算和非线性动力学来改进传统的灰色模型.
- 为中国的低碳转型和合理能源消费提供政策见解.
主要方法:
- 开发一个分数多变量非线性灰色模型 (FMNGM(q,N)) 包含非线性因子关系和分数数据积累.
- 利用卡普托类型的分数导数来表征内源数据关系.
- 使用量子粒子群优化 (QPSO) 算法优化模型参数,以最大限度地降低平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE).
主要成果:
- 拟议的FMNGM (q,N) 模型在分析2001-2018年中国二氧化碳排放数据时,与其他模型相比,显示出更高的预测准确度.
- 预测显示,与2019年相比,2020年中国的二氧化碳排放量将减少约3.15%,达到9.893亿.
- 该模型的表现使用分为两个不同的经济发展阶段 (2001-2009年和2010-2018年) 的数据进行了验证.
结论:
- 新型分数多变量非线性灰色模型提供了一个更准确的方法来预测CO2排放受到COVID-19大流行等事件的影响.
- 预计二氧化碳排放量下降凸显了实现低碳转型目标的潜力.
- 调查结果为投资清洁能源和基础设施提供了关键的政策影响,以支持中国的可持续发展.
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