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洞察西尼罗河病毒在新出现的场景中传播的时空动态
Laia Casades-Martí1, Raúl Cuadrado-Matías1, Alfonso Peralbo-Moreno1
1Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos (IREC), CSIC-UCLM-JCCM, Ciudad Real, Spain.
One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)
|June 26, 2023
概括
西班牙的野生类动物显示出受环境和宿主因素影响的西尼罗病毒 (WNV) 暴露模式. 这些数据有助于预测WNV传播对公共健康的风险.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 亚博病毒学 亚博病毒学
- 野生动物健康 野生动物健康
背景情况:
- 西尼罗河热 (WNF) 的发病率是不可预测的,阻碍了风险评估.
- 西尼罗病毒 (WNV) 研究的临床数据因频繁的无症状感染而有偏见.
- 哨兵物种提供了一种可行的方法来监测WNV传播动态.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定跨年WNV传输速率的决定因素.
- 模拟西班牙不同地区野生类动物的WNV暴露风险.
- 分析影响WNV暴露概率的环境和宿主因素.
主要方法:
- 在西班牙五个地区进行了为期15年的长度血清流行病学研究 (2005-2020年).
- 使用阻断ELISA对2418只野生类动物 (红鹿和欧亚野猪) 血清进行分析.
- 一般化的线性混合模型和差异分区,以确定暴露预测因素.
主要成果:
- 野生类动物的平均WNV血清流行率为24.9%,野猪的血清流行率高于鹿.
- 观察到空间趋势,南部地区的暴露率更高,时间趋势略有增加.
- 年度累积降水是最强的环境预测因素;宿主因素也是重要的驱动因素.
结论:
- 野生类动物作为WNV传播的有效哨兵.
- 环境和宿主因素显著影响WNV暴露动态.
- 结果支持开发WNV传播风险的预测模型,以告知公共卫生行动.
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