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在气候变化情景下,欧洲对西尼罗病毒传播的预测
Zia Farooq1, Henrik Sjödin1, Jan C Semenza1,2
1Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Sweden.
One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)
|June 26, 2023
概括
由于气候变化,欧洲的西尼罗病毒 (WNV) 风险可能在2040-60年增加五倍. 这种扩散威胁着数百万人,需要针对性的公共卫生策略来管理WNV传播.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 西尼罗河病毒 (WNV) 是一种蚊子传播的动物病,是欧洲日益严重的公共卫生问题.
- 最近的WNV疫情与向量传播有利的气候条件有关.
- 根据气候变化情景,目前还没有预测WNV扩张.
研究的目的:
- 在各种气候变化和社会经济情景下估计欧洲WNV爆发的风险.
- 确定潜在的WNV风险区域,并估计风险人群 (PAR).
主要方法:
- 使用监督机器学习分类器 (XGBoost) 与集体气候模型和多场景方法.
- 使用气候,社会经济和WNV感染数据 (2010-22) 训练模型.
- 使用基于信心的绩效估计 (CBPE) 验证的样本外结果 (1950-2009,2023-1999年).
主要成果:
- 与2000-20年相比,预计2040-60年WNV风险将增加多达5倍.
- 欧洲报告疾病的陆地面积可能从15%增加到23-30%,影响1.61亿至2.44亿人.
- 西欧面临着最大的WNV爆发风险预测增加,风险变化与气候值有关.
结论:
- 气候变化在欧洲显著增加了WNV风险,特别是在西欧.
- 温氏风险的扩大是非线性的,受气候值的影响.
- 针对性的公共卫生反应对于管理气候变化带来的WNV扩张至关重要.
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