在中国甘的日本脑炎传播趋势:基于空间分散的时间序列预测模型
Xuxia Wang1, Aiwei He1, Chunfang Zhang1
1Gansu Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou, Gansu, China.
One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)
|June 26, 2023
概括
日本脑炎 (JE) 正在中国甘省西北地区蔓延. 一个SARIMA模型准确地预测了JE传播趋势,有助于对这种蚊子传播疾病的早期预警系统.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 是指地理信息系统.
- 时间序列分析时间序列分析
背景情况:
- 日本脑炎 (JE) 构成了严重的公共卫生威胁,特别是在亚洲.
- 了解JE传播的时空动态对于有效的控制策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析日本脑炎 (JE) 在中国甘省的乡镇层面传播的空间和时间趋势.
- 开发和验证一个创新的时间序列预测模型,用于预测GE的地理分布.
主要方法:
- 从2005年到2019年收集的每周JE数据.
- 利用Kriging插值来可视化空间趋势.
- 使用线性回归来评估传播速度和季节性自回归集成移动平均线 (SARIMA) 模型进行每周预测.
主要成果:
- 在JE传输中显示出明显的西北趋势.
- 量化了大约0.64公里/月向西和1.00公里/月向北的传播速度.
- 使用SARIMA (2,0,0) ((2,0,1) 52) 模型实现了高预测准确度 (93.27%94.23%).
结论:
- 甘省的JE病例正在向西北扩大,需要加强监测和控制.
- SARIMA模型是预测JE空间分散和改进早期预警系统的宝贵工具.
- 新兴乡镇的数量作为预测JE空间分布模式的可靠指标.
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