泰国到2050年净零排放:对整个经济的影响分析
Salony Rajbhandari1, Pornphimol Winyuchakrit1, Bijay Bahadur Pradhan1
1Thammasat University Research Unit in Sustainable Energy and Built Environment, Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University, 99 Moo 18, Km. 41 on Paholyothin Highway, Khlong Luang, Pathum Thani, 12120 Thailand.
Sustainability science
|June 26, 2023
概括
到2050年在泰国实现净零温室气体 (GHG) 排放是可能的,但可能导致8.5%的GDP损失. 关键战略包括能源效率,可再生能源和碳捕获,利用和储存 (CCUS).
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 一般平衡模型建模
背景情况:
- 泰国面临着越来越大的压力,需要实施减缓气候变化政策.
- 到2050年实现净零温室气体 (GHG) 排放是一个关键的国家目标.
- 了解这些目标的经济影响对于有效的政策设计至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 探索泰国到2050年实现温室气体净零排放目标对整个经济的影响.
- 分析2度变暖路径的宏观经济后果.
- 为泰国确定关键的脱碳化战略.
主要方法:
- 为泰国开发一个递归动态的亚太综合模型/可计算的一般平衡 (AIM/CGE) 模型.
- 评估与实现净零温室气体排放相关的宏观经济影响.
- 对GDP损失和碳减排成本的部门贡献的分析.
主要成果:
- 泰国需要加快温室气体减排努力,到2025年达到峰值,到2050年达到净零.
- 脱碳的主要支柱包括能源效率,电气化,可再生能源,绿色,生物能源以及碳捕获,利用和储存 (CCUS).
- 到2050年实现净零排放可能会造成重大经济损失,国内生产总值 (GDP) 可能下降8.5%.
结论:
- 泰国可以实现到2050年净零温室气体排放,但这需要巨大的经济成本.
- 预计石油炼油,采矿,制造业和运输等能源密集型行业将经历显著的生产率下降.
- 碳减排的成本预计将大幅上,从2025年的14美元/tCO2eq到2050年的734美元/tCO2eq.
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