德国的老龄化和地区生产率增长
Eckhardt Bode1, Dirk Dohse1, Ulrich Stolzenburg1
1Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 24100 Kiel, Germany.
概括
人口老龄化影响地区生产率增长. 劳动力老龄化阻碍了城市创新,而较大的退休者份额减少了家庭服务有限的地区的增长.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 区域科学 地区科学
背景情况:
- 人口老龄化对区域生产率增长的影响尚未完全理解.
- 老龄化表现为劳动力老龄化和越来越多的退休人员.
- 了解这些影响对于区域经济发展战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查劳动力老龄化和退休者份额对区域生产率增长的影响.
- 确定人口老龄化影响德国各县生产率的机制.
- 根据城市/非城市和行业专业化等区域特征来区分影响.
主要方法:
- 从2000年至2019年,对一组德国县进行分析.
- 检查人口老龄化的两个关键方面:劳动力老龄化和退休人员的比例.
- 统计调查老龄化指标与区域生产率增长之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 劳动力老龄化与生产率增长有负相关性,特别是在城市地区,这可能是因为它对创新的影响.
- 较高的退休人员比例与小家庭服务部门的地区的生产率增长较低有关.
- 这一效应归因于由老年人需求驱动的资源从生产部门重新分配到生产力较低的家庭服务.
结论:
- 人口老龄化给区域生产率增长带来了明显的挑战.
- 城市地区更容易受到劳动力老龄化对创新驱动增长的负面影响.
- 专注于高生产率行业的地区面临着更大的潜在损失,因为人口变化影响服务业需求.
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