流感大流行和宏观经济波动 1871-2016 年
Fraser Summerfield1, Livio Di Matteo2
1Department of Economics, St Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, NS B2G 2W5 Canada.
概括
流感大流行通过死亡率显著影响短期商业周期,影响GDP波动. 即使不那么严重的流行病也有显著的经济后果.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 经济史 经济史 经济史
背景情况:
- 流行病的宏观经济影响尚未得到充分研究,特别是短期影响.
- 现有的文学专注于长期增长或特定的历史流行病.
研究的目的:
- 为了记录流感流行病的短期宏观经济影响.
- 分析流行病死亡率与商业周期波动之间的因果关系.
主要方法:
- 使用了Jordà-Schularick-Taylor宏观历史数据库和人类死亡数据库.
- 采用了工具变量方法,使用流行病来衡量工作年龄死亡率.
- 从1871年到2016年,分析了16个国家的数据.
主要成果:
- 流行病引起的死亡率对1870年后的商业周期波动有显著的贡献.
- 确定了对GDP周期性组成部分的负面因果影响.
- 证明了不那么灾难性的流行病具有重要的经济影响.
结论:
- 流行病是短期宏观经济波动的重要驱动因素.
- 流行病的经济后果超越了严重的历史事件.
- 对短期流行病经济学的进一步研究是有必要的.
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