为了实现墨西哥2030年和2040年的肥胖目标,需要减少卡路里:一项建模研究
Francisco Reyes-Sánchez1, Ana Basto-Abreu1, Rossana Torres-Álvarez2
1National Institute of Public Health, Population Health Research Center, Cuernavaca, Mexico.
PLoS medicine
|June 26, 2023
概括
墨西哥面临着成年人肥胖率的上升,预计到2030年将达到45%. 实现肥胖控制目标需要每天显著减少每人74至209卡路里的热量,这需要更强有力的公共卫生干预措施.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 营养科学 营养科学
背景情况:
- 墨西哥成年人肥胖率大幅上升,从2000年的23%上升到2018年的36%.
- 墨西哥缺乏明确的短期和长期肥胖目标,阻碍了有效的干预策略.
研究的目的:
- 预测墨西哥在2030年和2040年潜在的肥胖率目标.
- 估计必要的每日热量减少,以实现这些预计的肥胖目标.
主要方法:
- 利用了墨西哥健康和营养调查 (2000-2018) 的人类计量和人口统计数据.
- 使用重量变化微模拟模型与人口和能量摄入量预测相结合.
- 定义了三种肥胖目标场景:可信的,中间的和理想的 (OECD平均值).
主要成果:
- 如果没有干预,到2030年肥胖率可能增加到45%,到2040年可能增加到48%.
- 实现理想情景 (19%的肥胖) 需要到2030年减少190千卡/人/天,到2040年减少209千卡/人/天.
- 肥胖率预计将在较低社会经济地位的群体中增长得更快.
结论:
- 为了实现墨西哥2040年肥胖目标,需要大幅减少热量 (74-209千卡/天/人).
- 现有的干预措施,如食品税和警告标签,应该增加新的,更强有力的措施.
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