快速审查和对SARS-CoV-2Delta和Omicron变种的序列间隔进行元分析
Zachary J Madewell1, Yang Yang2, Ira M Longini3
1Department of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. zmadewe@emory.edu.
BMC infectious diseases
|June 26, 2023
概括
对于SARS-CoV-2变种Delta和Omicron的序列间隔比较短,这表明传播速度更快. 欧米克朗亚型表现出更短的连续间隔,这表明加速传播的持续趋势.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态.
- 病毒学 病毒学
背景情况:
- 序列间隔,即连续病例出现症状之间的时间,对于理解传染病传播至关重要.
- 之前对SARS-CoV-2 (导致COVID-19的病毒) 的估计显示,野生型和Alpha变种的连续间隔约为5.2天.
- 在流行病期间,由于病毒进化和干预,连续间隔可能会缩短.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计SARS-CoV-2的Delta和Omicron变种的序列间隔.
- 为了将这些估计与早期SARS-CoV-2变种的估计进行比较.
主要方法:
- 在主要数据库和预印服务器上进行了系统的文献搜索.
- 对Delta和Omicron变种进行了元分析,使用限制的最大概率估计模型.
- 包括46,648个Delta的初级/二级病例对和18,324个Omicron的数据.
主要成果:
- 德尔塔变种的综合平均序列间隔为3.9天 (95% CI:3.4-4.3).
- 对于Omicron变体的综合平均序列间隔为3.2天 (95% CI:2.9-3.5).
- 奥米克朗亚型BA.1,BA.2和BA.5的连续间隔分别为3.3,2.9和2.3天.
结论:
- 与祖先的SARS-CoV-2菌株相比,Delta和Omicron变种的连续间隔较短.
- 缩短序列间隔的趋势,特别是对于Omicron亚型,表明传播速度更快.
- 未来的SARS-CoV-2的演变和人口免疫力的变化可能会进一步改变序列间隔估计.
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